Los Banos Rotary Club History
Bank Economist Sees Good Year For California

As a whole, the economic prosperity of California this year will equal or probably exceed that of last year. Such is the prediction of Dr. Harold Furst, of San Francisco, regional economist for the Bank of America. Speaking to members of the Los Banos Rotary Club Tuesday noon, Dr. Furst analyzed the economic development of the state in recent years, and with a series of charts graphically explained the gradually changing pattern of the state's productivity and wealth.

Pointing out the natural surge in total wealth as the result of the continuing growth in population. Dr. Furst said the state's population, which is now 13.3 million, will have increased to more than 16 million by 1960. The population in 1940 was 6.9 million. By 1965, forecasters anticipate the population will have jumped to about 17.8 million, greater than the state of New York. By way of comparison, he said, such increase is more than if everyone now living in the state of Oregon were to suddenly move to California.

Such increase in growth, will naturally be reflected in a continuing construction period, both public and private. New schools, new hospitals, more and better roads, all will supply work and material demands for the future. Private construction, also, will respond to the population increase. Residential construction, which last year accounted for almost 16 per cent of all new homes built in the United States, is expected to show a minor decline this year, which will be more than offset by commercial and industrial construction.
Dr. Furst states that in California, job opportunities have increased even faster than our population, and he expects employment to continue to climb through the year. Total employment in the state in 1940 was 2,054,000. In 1950 the figure had climbed to 4,079,000, and by 1960 total employment is expected to reach 5,165,000.

Manufacturing, trades and services will continue to provide more jobs for more people, helping to sustain our per capita income at about $400 a year more than the national average. Competition in all line, however, is expected to be keener, and firms that cannot adjust to competition will likely fall by the wayside.

The only sour note in the state's economy, Dr. Furst analyzed, is agriculture, on which Los Banos and most other smaller cities in the state depend almost wholly. Agricultural income, which has steadily declined since 1951, is expected to show a return above that of last year, but below the years of 1953 or 1954. The state's agriculture, he said, is now, and will continue to be, well above the national average, and in the general picture is considered in a very healthy position.

Dr. Furst was introduced at the luncheon by Edward Evans, local Rotarian and manager of the Los Banos branch of the Bank of America.

February 24, 1956

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